This essay addresses creative potential, the second of the four “Ps” of visionary thinking – purpose, potential, possibility, and picture. Visionary thinking is an essential skill that creative leaders must master. Creative leadership is a process whereby an idea is brought from initial conception to its fulfillment in reality. Visionary thinking is one of the first steps (or thinking skills) in the creative process where one formulates an understanding of the desired outcome, leaving aside its actual achievement for future steps in the creative process. An important subcategory of visionary thinking includes potential thinking, where one examines the potential of the new idea or vision. A closely related cousin to potential thinking is possibility thinking, which will be examined in a separate essay.
One of the challenges faced by creative leaders– especially those who are highly skilled at divergent thinking – is that they can “think up” more desired outcomes (and ideas) than they could ever develop into final form in a hundred lifetimes. Thus, a critical step in the creative process must be to assess the potential of each desired outcome and select the best one from among several promising alternatives. Ideally, this assessment should occur, at least tentatively (expected potential), as part of the visionary step in order to preserve resources from being squandered on low-potential ideas. A more complete assessment of the desired outcome (actual potential) may occur later in the creative process.
Very often, legendary inventors have evaluated the potential of their desired outcome on an implicit basis. For instance, to the Wright brothers, the potential benefits of a flying air machine were obvious and worth the time devoted to the task. Likewise, for Edison, a long-lasting light bulb had the potential to revolutionize life and indeed, it did indeed usher in the modern era.
It is important to use potential thinking in a deliberate, explicit manner. The consequences of failing to engage potential thinking early on usually include wasted time and resources that could be used on higher-value objectives. Additionally, omitting potential thinking also causes a plethora of distractions and unfinished projects, though started with great zeal, are abandoned as it becomes apparent that the potential of the project may not be so high after all. Worse yet, some ideas are taken all the way to final form, only to flop in epic manner when taken to market.
However, even the great Edison had to learn this lesson the hard way. On June 1st, 1869, Edison obtained his first patent for the electric voting counting machine.
“A fellow telegrapher named Dewitt Roberts bought an interest in the invention for $100 and took it to Washington, D.C. to exhibit to a committee of Congress. The chairman of the committee, unimpressed with the speed with which the instrument could record votes, told him that ‘if there is any invention on earth that we don’t want down here, that is it.’ The slow pace of roll call voting in Congress and other legislatures enabled members to filibuster legislation or convince others to change their votes. Edison’s vote recorder was never used.” (Thomas Edison papers, Rutgers University.)
From this experience, Edison learned two valuable lessons: (1) only work on ideas that have high potential; and (2) carefully assess the potential of an idea before expending the time, effort, and resources to bring it into fruition.
Measurement of Potential
The potential of a desired outcome can vary greatly and impact different levels – personal, domain, local, national, or global. Here are some desired outcomes that I am either working on, have achieved, or might work on in the future.
| Level | Desired Outcome (Primary Purpose) | Considerations (Secondary Purpose) |
| Personal | Write a creative short story for class | Get “A” on assignment; write a literary work that teaches about creativity; improve writing skills and personal creativity. |
| Domain | Publish article in creativity journal | Build credentials within creativity field; add to knowledge on creativity; help others. |
| Local | Presented on visionary thinking at Florida Creativity Weekend, March 2-4, 2012 | Build credentials within creativity field; practice public speaking; teach audience things that will help them. |
| National | Published article in national magazine, ACC Docket, Dec. 2011. Increasing the Organizational Impact of Your Law Department | Build credentials within legal field; free advertising for my employer. |
| Global | Write book on the promotion of creativity & creative leadership in business and education | Earn second income to support future creative endeavors; add to existing knowledge; advance business and educational concerns; help others |
It is best to evaluate a desired outcome in terms of both personal and broader considerations. For instance, personal considerations might include monetary concerns, potential to unlock doors in career, gaining additional resources to support future creative endeavors, etc. Broader considerations might include advancing scientific, political, societal, moral, or artistic concerns. For instance, movements such as Microplace and Kiva use microfinance loans to accomplish the societal, moral, and political objectives of reliving suffering and promoting economic development and equality throughout the world.
It is also important to note that at this stage, we are interested in measuring the potential of the desired outcome, not necessarily the potential of the solution that would achieve the desired outcome. At the visionary stage, it is important to make sure we have the “right” problem. Only later in the creative process will be concerned with whether we have the “right” solution. Focusing on the right problem is important because it is sometimes tempting to come up with an elegant solution to the wrong problem (“how might I make this horse buggy more efficient”), which can be majorly counterproductive.
Assessing the Potential of a Desired Outcome
False Acceptance and False Rejection
At the visionary stage, we are primarily concerned with the “expected potential” of a desired outcome because its actual potential won’t and can’t be known until much later in the creative process. When assessing the expected potential of a desired outcome, there are two errors or traps that should be avoided, if at all possible: false acceptance and false rejection.
Both errors occur where there is a significant deviation between the expected and actual potential of a desired outcome. In the case of false acceptance, the actual potential is lower than its expected potential. With false rejection, the actual potential is higher than expected. The first error type leads to wasted resources invested in a failed product or idea, which sometimes can be significant waste. Though often, there are some lessons learned that can be invaluable (so long as you didn’t get fired) and lay the ground for future creative success.
The second error type of false rejection leads to missing what can sometimes amount to a significant opportunity. Unfortunately, opportunities often have short-shelf lives as competitors move quickly to capitalize on opportunities that may have been inadvertently or foolishly overlooked. In some instances, however, competitors also overlook the same opportunity which lies dormant until someone is prepared to discover it. False rejection can be caused by a number of factors including the presence of other viable opportunities, incorrect or incomplete assumptions, inadequate investigation, incomplete or inaccurate data, personal prejudices or blind spots, excessive deference to established conventions or norms, or focusing on a perceived flaw rather than the idea’s potential.
False acceptance can occur by giving too much weight to early data or not thinking things through. Both Thomas Edison and Coca-Cola made false acceptance errors—Edison with his electric voting machine and Coke with its product flop of New Coke. Examples of false acceptance abound when dealing with new product launches. Some examples of some famous product flops include Sony Betamax, Coca-Cola’s New Coke, Pepsi’s Crystal Pepsi, the DeLorean (as in “Back to the Future”), and the Ford Edsel.
However, false rejection is probably even more commonplace than false acceptance. This is because it is extremely easy to reject the potential of a desired outcome without undertaking a sufficient investigation, including by developing new thinking about how limitations might be overcome. The following is compilation of famous quotes demonstrating the prevalence of false rejection.
Examples of False Rejection
- “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” ~ Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
- “Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” ~ Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
- “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” ~ Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
- “The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” ~A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
- “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” ~ Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
- “A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.” ~ Response to Debbi Fields’ idea of starting Mrs. Fields’ Cookies.
- “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” ~ Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
Overcoming False Acceptance through Accurate Prediction,
Fortunately, there are at least three antidotes – accurate prediction, affirmative judgment, and strong conviction – that help avoid the errors of false acceptance and false rejection. Accurate prediction seeks to eliminate predictive errors between the expected potential and actual potential of a desired outcome in order to avoid false acceptance.
Accurate prediction is a skill that is notoriously difficult to develop and is more of an art than a science. If you had it, you could use it to make millions in the stock market. With accurate prediction, you could know which markets to enter and exit, what products to launch and pull, and what companies to acquire or investments to divest. Accurate prediction is achieved by gathering the “right” data, analyzing conflicting information, anticipating trends, and developing and testing theories, but then ultimately, making an educated guess coupled with a strong hunch.
Accurate prediction obviously requires a careful, through data gathering process. This includes gathering information from proponents, naysayers, the indifferent, and even unrelated fields, gleaning as much information and insight as possible. In essence, to become good at this, you have to become hyper-focused on information, where you are continuously scanning the environment for new bits of information to process and revise your working theories and hypotheses. More importantly, however, accurate prediction requires openness to information and substantial sensitivity to data, even in the smallest micro-informational packets. Biases should be carefully minimized (they can never be eliminated) as the only concern should be for an accurate prediction (even one that goes against personal preferences).
Careful analysis of data reveals that certain data (or sets of data) is more important than other information. From this data you can start to develop theories and anticipate possible trends or outcomes. Over time, the various trickles of information will flow together into small streams, which will usually point in more than one direction (possibly indicating the need for multiple theories or sub-theories). Unfortunately, this process is never entirely clear, so a high tolerance for ambiguity is needed. At best, at the end of this process you will have developed a multiple, plausible theories, each substantiated by different pieces of data, which point to different outcomes. But as additional data comes in, certain theories are vindicated while others are abandoned. At the end of the day, you should have some working models which might (if you are lucky) give you a sense of direction as to which way things are heading, and thus, which projects you should invest time, money, and resources into development.
Accurate prediction of expected and actual potential of a desired outcome can be achieved by seeking information, remaining open, and become sensitive to even the smallest bits of information. This information is used to challenge assumptions and make sure a desired outcome really has a high potential before proceeding with it. This skill is vitally important because, without it, it is possible to falsely assume that a particular outcome will be successful based on limited data, when such idea will ultimately prove untenable. For example, the success of the Apple’s former CEO Steve Jobs was largely attributed to his legendary ability to anticipate consumer demand while still in the design process of a new product launch.
Overcoming false rejection through Affirmative Judgment
Affirmative judgment promotes the careful examination of a desired outcome before its actual potential can be understood, realized, and achieved. By developing affirmative judgment, you can avoid the temptation to give up on a high-potential idea just because you have received some (or a lot) of rejection at an early stage in the project.
Affirmative judgment is the exact opposite of critical judgment. Ever notice that when, in a large group of people, someone expresses an idea, members of the group will invariable shoot off their mouths like verbal shut guns and hurl volleys of negative remarks towards the fledgling idea, which shatters into shards before it even reaches its zenith. In contrast, affirmative judgment give each idea every possible chance to fly.
Affirmative judgment can be summarized with the acronym POINt (pluses, opportunity, issues, new thinking). First the positive attributes of the idea is examined. Next, the idea’s opportunity (or potential) is examined. Only after exhausting all positive views of the idea are potential “issues” explored. But unlike with critical thinking, with affirmative judgment the participants attempt to overcome any issues with new thinking about how the idea could be modifying or that obstacles could be removed in some fashion.
Practicing affirmative judgment helps avoid false rejection (due to critical judgment) by giving ideas a chance to develop as well as additional time to better understand their potential. Ideas are like tadpoles, partially formed at birth and take time and a supportive environment to come to fruition. Affirmative judgment gives you a chance to work through and overcome certain issues with any idea as no idea is conceived in perfect, final form.
Overcoming false rejection through Strong Conviction
In addition to exercising affirmative judgment, strong conviction as a visionary is absolutely critical. Strong conviction requires a belief in the vision’s potential and the possibility of bringing it into reality. Without a strong belief in the potential of a vision, a visionary may be thwarted by obstacles before the true potential of a desired outcome becomes apparent.
There are plenty of people who had high-potential ideas and dreams within their grasp, but an incomplete understanding and conviction of their potential caused those ideas to slip through their fingers. A great example of this is the McDonalds brothers, who set up a profitable hamburger stand in southern California and employed factory line efficiency to fast food. But it was Ray Kroc, who ultimately bought out the McDonalds brothers and took their ideas to the whole nation and founded McDonald’s worldwide fast food empire. Indeed, it was Kroc’s strong conviction in the potential of the vision that motivated him to act successfully and with tenacity.
Besides conviction as to an idea’s potential, a visionary needs conviction in regards to an idea’s possibility. Being a successful visionary requires a high degree of self-confidence, resourcefulness, and persistence. Belief in oneself as a visionary is very likely to translate into the actual ability to carry out the vision. Resourcefulness is paramount to overcome the numerous challenges that arise when bringing a vision into reality. Finally, a high degree of dogged persistence is essential to see the vision through from beginning to end. Visions can be notoriously difficult to achieve so the visionary must be willing to endure a long and difficult ordeal, including many setbacks, obstacles, and naysayers along the way.
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